China’s National Bureau of Statistics reports a significant population decline of 0.15%, equating to 2.08 million people, marking the second consecutive year of decrease. This follows a trend initiated in 2022, the first decline since the Great Famine in 1961.
The nationwide surge in COVID-19 cases, spurred by the abrupt lifting of restrictions in December 2022, contributed to a 6.6% rise in total deaths, reaching 11.1 million. On the other hand, new births plummeted by 5.7% to 9.02 million, with a record-low birth rate of 6.39 births per 1,000 people.
China’s declining birth rate finds its roots in the one-child policy (1980-2015) and rapid urbanization, echoing earlier trends in Japan and South Korea. Economic challenges, including rising youth unemployment, falling wages, and a property sector crisis, further dampened the enthusiasm for childbearing in 2023.
With India surpassing China as the world’s most populous nation, concerns over China’s economic prospects grow. The data suggests a diminishing workforce and consumer base, raising worries about the strain on local governments from increasing elderly care and retirement benefit costs.
Long-term projections by U.N. experts anticipate a significant population decline of 109 million by 2050, tripling their previous forecast. The ageing population, with 21.1% aged 60 and over, poses challenges for the pension system, which is projected to run out of funds by 2035.
High childcare costs, gender discrimination, and traditional family expectations contribute to the reluctance to have children. President Xi Jinping’s call for a new culture of marriage and childbearing is met with scepticism. Local governments’ measures to encourage childbirth face challenges, with calls for a unified nationwide family subsidy scheme.
